The Gulf Development Forum held its fifth specialized meeting in Kuwait on Thursday, October 8, 2009, on “Policies and Mechanisms that Exacerbate the Demographic Imbalance in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries,” in which the Professor of Population Geography at King Saud University Dr. Rushoud Al-Khorayef presented a study on “Features of the imbalance in the demographic structure in The Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: A Study of Causes and Effects.” Dr. Baqer Al-Najjar, Professor of Sociology at the University of Bahrain, presented a study on: “The Repercussions of the Global Financial Crisis on the Labor Markets in the Arab Gulf.”
Dr. Al-Khorayef’s paper included noting that the Gulf region was very limited due to its harsh natural conditions and scarce resources, which made it an expelling population and a source of employment to the Fertile Crescent and Egypt. But the picture has changed over the past five decades, as the region witnessed great economic prosperity and rapid population growth. The population increased from only about five million in 1950 to about 40 million in 2008, about eight times. While the population of Kuwait – for example – was estimated at 120 thousand people in the year 1950 AD, it jumped to more than two million people in 2007 AD, and the population of the United Arab Emirates increased from 70 thousand people to more than 4 million people. The population of Qatar has also doubled many times, beginning with no more than 30,000 people in 1950 AD, and reaching about 800,000 people in 2007 AD. In fact, recent population projections indicate that the population of Qatar exceeded one million. The same picture is repeated in the rest of the GCC countries. The fall summarized the findings of the study of the features of the imbalance in the demographic structure in these countries, its causes, and its consequences, as follows:
1- The region has witnessed a gradual decrease in mortality rates, accompanied by a noticeable increase in life span, which has achieved health levels comparable to some developed countries.
2- Fertility rates have witnessed a gradual and noticeable decline during the past decade, with marked variations from one country to another. This demographic transition has led to the emergence of the so-called “demographic window” of an increase in the number of young people compared to other age groups, accompanied by relatively low dependency rates.
3 – The age structure in the GCC states is characterized by a high proportion of young people, but it is witnessing a gradual decline as a result of changes in fertility rates. On the other hand, the presence of large numbers of expatriate workers led to a high percentage of male youth, which led to a clear distortion in the age structure, which appears in the form of a dent in the population pyramid, as one of the manifestations of the demographic imbalance in the demographic structure.
4- Based on the changes witnessed by the demographic variables (fertility and mortality), the GCC countries will have achieved the largest part of the demographic transition in record time, and without direct intervention by governments to affect fertility through family planning programs.
5- Despite the great achievements in the fields of development and housing, the GCC countries have not achieved the hoped-for success in terms of human capital development, due to the delay in developing a population strategy with clear dimensions and landmarks that defines development priorities. This contributed, albeit in part, to the emergence of the demographic imbalance that the GCC countries suffer in one way or another, but to varying degrees.
6- The imbalance in the demographic structure emerges due to the high rates of expatriate workers in some countries, which raises the interest and concern of some, especially when the proportion of expatriates reaches more than half or three quarters of the population.
7- Unemployment reaches alarming rates in some countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, especially among females and youth, which requires doing more with regard to human development in general, capacity building and youth empowerment in particular.
At the end of the study, Dr. Al-Khorayef recommended making more efforts towards human development in general, and the development of the workforce in particular, that is, building people in terms of education, training and qualification. Increasing women’s participation in the labor force by empowering them and expanding the opportunities available to them. Achieving further integration among the GCC countries in the economic, industrial and agricultural aspects. Lifting restrictions on the movement of the Gulf workforce among the GCC states, to increase their effectiveness on the one hand, and enhance integration among the GCC states on the other. And raising the costs of recruiting foreign workers for some professions, and considering the possibility of applying the minimum wage. And focus on Arab employment, due to the presence of homogeneity in language and culture, in order to preserve the Arab and Islamic identity. And investing in the “demographic opportunity” by employing young people, expanding the opportunities available to them, and enabling them to contribute effectively to development, and then bring about an increase in economic growth and an improvement in the standard of living as a result of low dependency rates at the present time, and during the next two decades. Conducting in-depth and serious studies of the Gulf labor markets based on surveys of the service, industrial and agricultural sectors, in order to find effective solutions, and to formulate realistic and effective strategies for the workforce in particular, to be part of a comprehensive population strategy with clear dimensions and landmarks as a reference for development planning in the GCC states.
Dr. Baqer Al-Najjar’s study stated that it is not possible to discuss the volume of foreign work and the degree of demand for it in light of the actual economic need. Foreign work plays multiple economic, social and political roles, and in this it performs functions for the political context as well as for the economic and social. Its roles in this go beyond institutional organizations to groups and individuals, and its import does not depend on the actual needs of the various economic sectors, but rather on